Kazakh Wheat Supply Pressures Russian Export Prices
By Neena Rai
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
(c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Russian wheat export prices have eased for the first time this season after Kazakhstan recently appeared as a supplier, at a time when fears are growing that drought in the U.S. could propel prices for the grain higher.
Concerns that globally prices for various grains will rise were strengthened by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's revision down Monday of expectations for average corn yield from its August prediction, citing the hot weather across the central Plains, Midwest and Southeast regions.
A bullish forecast for corn tends to be also bullish for wheat because both are used as feed grains.
Kazakhstan shocked market participants last week by securing a wheat tender issued by the world's top importer, Egypt, for the first time since the country's harvest was weather-ravaged last year, defying skeptics the country wouldn't be able to match competitive offers from Russia and Ukraine.
Egypt's official state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities bought 120,000 metric tons of Kazakh wheat from trading house Glencore International PLC at $291 per ton.
As a result, Russian wheat export prices are seen easing for the first time this season, according to Andrey Sizov Jr., managing director of Moscow-based think-tank Sovecon.
Russian wheat export prices are now quoted at $290 a ton, free on board basis, that is $5 a ton less than before the emergence of Kazakh wheat exports, according to Sovecon.
"I think over the next few weeks we should see Russian export prices stabilizing, maybe losing a couple of dollars, but nothing more than that," Sizov Jr added.
Kazakhstan's grain harvest in 2011-12 is forecast to be 19.2 million tons, up 60% on the year, according to a report by the USDA. The wheat is forecast to total 16 million tons.
The USDA has pegged Kazakh wheat exports in 2011-12 at 7.5 million tons, but market participants are torn as to whether the country will hit the target.
Influential analyst Strategie Grains said last month it expects global wheat production in 2011-12 to be 78 million tons, up 7 million tons from its previous estimate, due to improved harvests in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
-By Neena Rai, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9450; neena.rai@dowjones.com. [ 14-09-11 1139GMT ]
19.09.2011, 3591 просмотр.
