Feed grain market: World market
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CBOT. Last week the corn futures grew by USD 1.26 up to USD 196.54/MT mainly due to technical factors.
Weather, field works
Forecast distribution of grain areas for the 2011 harvest
This fall, planted winter grain area for the 2011 harvest will be somewhat smaller than last year. In particular, plantings of winter barley and wheat will shrink to some degree. Partially, the acreage decrease will be caused by the negative experience of last year, which was featured by substantial loss of winter crops in the East.
The weather conditions allow farmers to plant at the same pace as last year.
The fears provoked by a moisture deficit at the beginning of the planting campaign have been minimized to date. The reason is that in most regions the moisture content at the plow soil layer exceeds the value of 10 mm needed for seeds to germinate. The only exception is the South, where just 8% of moisture is available, but its replenishment is expected as soon as next week.
Center of Ukraine: moisture content at 0-20 cm soil layer
South of Ukraine: moisture content at 0-20 cm soil layer
Of winter crops, we believe the only expansion compared to last year will be rye. Last year, this crop's acreage came to its all-time low because of an extremely low margin. However, rye prices grew in the summer of 2010 and that allows us to predict some restoration of areas under this frost resistant crop.
In our opinion, the distribution of areas under winter grains will look as follows:
2011/12 2010/11
Winter wheat 6500-6600 6750
Winter barley 1350-1400 1640
rye 340-350 305
total 8300-8350 8695
The area under spring crops will depend on winter crop survival this winter. As a rough approximation, it is reasonable to consider the average rate of winter crops loss within 5-7%. In this case we expect the following area distribution of spring crops:
2011/12 2010/11
Spring wheat 315 315
Spring barley 3300 3030
Spring corn 2500 2740
Others 1130 1130
Total 7245 7215
Last year's sharp increase in area under winter barley along with the late arrival of spring resulted in a smaller area under spring barley. Simultaneously, for the same reason, the late arrival of spring, lost winter barley was reseeded mainly with corn. This year, for our first forecast we are expecting a more traditional area distribution of crops.
According to preliminary estimates by UkrAgroConsult, the total area under grains for the 2011 harvest will be at 15.55 Ml ha against last year's 15.9 Ml ha. Please remember that the total planted area is expected to shrink against 2009 due to lower loss of winter crops.
Russia. On September 22 winter grains acreage approximated 8.4 Ml ha in Russia. The intended area is 18.4 Ml ha.
30.09.2010, 2775 просмотров.
