EU milling wheat production shrinks by 15m tonnes
By Agrimoney.com - Published 16/09/2010
The amount of Europe's wheat crop fit for milling has fallen by some 15 tonnes this year thanks to the rains which delayed harvesting, notably in Germany, Strategie Grains has said.
The influential analysis group cut its production hopes for European Union soft wheat by 1.0m tonnes to 127.2m tonnes, the third successive monthly reduction.
And of this reduced crop, a lower proportion, of 55%, would be fit for milling. Last year, when Europe reaped 129.5m tonnes of soft wheat, 66% was considered above feed quality, with the figure at 68% in 2008.
"The proportion of feed wheat is revised up and is now higher than last year," Strategie Grains said.
It noted that this dynamic was "especially true for Germany", where summer rains caused severe harvest delays, leading the level of the crop considered of milling quality to fall significantly below the typical 80-90%.
Agritel, the Paris-based consultancy, reported earlier this week that German milling wheat was "lacking, with as much as 50% feed wheat".
Winners and losers
The comments come amid expectations that the global 2010-11 crop will fall short of last year's on both quality and quantity, with Canada crop facing cold temperatures which, because of its late developing this year, poses a particular threat.
EU crop estimates, 2010-11, change on last forecast, (and on 2009-10)
Soft wheat: 127.2m tonnes, -1.0m tonnes, -2%
Corn: 56.0m tonnes, -1.0m tonnes, -2%
Barley: 52.4m tonnes, -600,000 tonnes, -15%
Durum: 8.5m tonnes, +100,000 tonnes, +1%
Rye: 7.6m tonnes,-400,000 tonnes, -21%
Total (incl others): 274.8m tonnes, -2.7m tonnes, -5.9%
Source: Strategie Grains
"A severe frost and a hard freeze appear likely for many areas within the next one-to-three days. This may mean some damage to any immature wheat," forecasters at Meterologix said.
Kevin Kjorsvik, at US broker Benson Quinn Commodities, said that Canada's woes "could help [US] hard red soft and hard red winter wheat exports".
In Europe, Agritel said that France "should benefit" from Germany's setback, "and increase its export share in Europe". Strategie Grains confirmed that France's crop had proven of good quality, with 92% of the crop of milling grade, with the UK's coming out well too.
Although the UK wheat harvest also suffered rain delays, and is expected to end this week in the farm local to Agrimoney.com's offices, the National Farmers Union reported on Tuesday that much of the country's better quality grain had been combined before rainfall hit.
Export twists
Nonetheless, Strategie Grains cut its estimate for overall EU wheat exports by 1.3m tonnes to 17.4m tonnes, echoing a downgrade by US Department of Agriculture statisticians, who on Friday slashed by 3.0m tonnes, to 21.0m tonnes, their forecast for total European wheat shipments, including durum.
In a follow-up report this week, expanding on its reasoning, the USDA said that "lower supplies, and hence higher domestic prices, are projected to more than negate a European Union general transportation advantage for exporting to North Africa and the Middle East".
Indeed, one knock-on effect of Russia's export ban had been to lower shipping rates, so reducing the EU's advantage in transportation costs.
The USDA also highlighted the relatively poor quality of the crop in Germany, where "it has been raining almost non-stop for the last several weeks".
"Germany already has contracts to export high quality wheat to Saudi Arabia, and will be struggling to meet its obligations," the report added.
03.10.2010, 3687 просмотров.
